Most of Europe's Running Out of Fossil Fuels

A report out today shows how the distribution of natural resources around the globe has changed over a decade, and it’s not a pretty picture. Our supplies of many resources are dwindling, and fast.

The report by the Global Resource Observatory at the Anglia Ruskin University's Global Sustainability Institute produced a series of maps that show how many years each country has until resources run out if its consumption rates continue at the same rate: food, water, natural gas, oil, coal—you know, just life’s little luxuries.

The most alarming maps are, unsurprisingly, related to energy. We know that oil, gas, and coal are finite resources, but the colour-coded indicators of quite how little is left in some places is nevertheless a stark reminder of our current situation, and Europe in particular needs the wake-up call. According to the GRO, the UK has fewer than 10 years of oil left, and fewer than five years of coal and natural gas, with the rest of Europe also looking pretty barren (though Russia is doing just fine). These maps show the distribution of oil, coal, and gas in 2010, the most recent year shown in the report:

Of course, that doesn’t mean the lights are going to go out in the UK by the 2020s; we’re not reliant on just our own resources. But it does mean we’ve got a pressing economic and political situation on our hands. Lead researcher Aled Jones told me that they’re really interested in the link between resources and economic growth, and how that could affect future political stability. “Energy and food are obviously drivers of economic growth and activity,” he said, and explained that looking at each country’s resources could help predict the geopolitics of trade in the next decade.

Quite how important having your own stock of resources is depends on the country, and whether you can afford to buy on the international market. “Interestingly it’s becoming more important, because energy prices are going up, food prices are going up, so if you’re completely reliant on the international market it’s going to be more expensive,” said Jones.

And of course, politics can affect that trade, as Europe is currently seeing in regard to Russian gas; the Financial Times reported yesterday that Russia has threatened to stop gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine amid the crisis.

When it comes to the worryingly low numbers of years left for resources in some countries, Jones said he was mainly surprised at how surprised people were. We should all know this, after all. More importantly, we should be planning for it. Given the finite nature of resources like oil and coal, and hence the general trend downwards, I asked Jones if we weren’t in fact heading for some sort of total collapse anyway. What matter the exact number of years?

“That’s actually what we’re trying to model; understanding how a collapse could happen,” he said, and added that most immediate point of concern was likely actually food, in some parts of the world. “Is a collapse possible? Yes. If we do nothing about it and continue with business as usual, a collapse is almost inevitable,” he said.

But amid this doom and gloom is where a glimmer of hope shines, if you’re an optimist. Because to deal with this, we need to figure out new models of resources, which could end up being better anyway. I’m talking, of course, about renewable energy sources, investment in which is one obvious way of securing homegrown energy. And the added bonus there is that it would address another looming crisis: climate change.

A glimmer is, however, all we have right now, because it’s not happening yet. As the BBC points out, the current UK government recently announced a cut in subsidies for some solar energy and isn’t exactly enamoured of wind farms.

Over in the US, another less environmentally-minded solution has raised its head: shale gas fracking. That's seen its years of natural gas resources rise from under 10 years in 2005 to 11 years in 2010 as a result, with the potential to grow further if more reserves are proven.

That puts it on the other side of the bargaining table for that specific resource: should it use that gas to provide their own cheap energy, or export it for money? The UK may of course also see an increase in natural gas resources if it pursues fracking.

At both ends of the resource spectrum, it all comes down to economics, and one set of maps in the report throw a bit of a reality check into the mix: debt. Maps for both central government debt and private debt show an increase in swathes of bright red. Below are the maps of central government debt in 2000 and 2010, for comparison:

Jones said it was most interesting to look at the debt maps next to the resource maps. “There’s obviously a very particular reason for a significant increase in debt over the last five or so years,” he said. “How the hell you pay that debt off or really bring it down when the drivers of your economic growth in the past are more at risk, that’s a very interesting question.”