To Replace Nuclear Power, Japan Is Spending Billions on Gas and Coal

International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors stroll through the Tokai Daini Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Via IAEA/Flickr

Two years on, the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan still hasn't been solved, and the country as a whole is souring on atom-smashing energy. But if nuclear's out, what's in? Fossil fuels, and a whole lot of them. This week, Japan announced a $7 billion initiative to build 12 new natural gas and two new coal plants by the end of next year.

It should come as no surprise then that Japanese citizens have had about enough of nuclear power, which the country—lacking in both resources and space—relied on for about 30 percent of its energy before Fukushima led to nuclear shutdowns. Earlier this year, the country was close to turning its nukes back on, as importing fossil fuels to make up the gap is an expensive proposition.

But last month, every single Japanese reactor sat idled. While that was partially due to Japanese regulations that require reactors to be shut down for maintenance at least once every 13 months, it served to highlight that Japan's nuclear future is in limbo. Now, the new funding for fossil fuel plants is a sign that the Japanese government lacks confidence in its nuclear industry rebounding to its former scale.

The $7 billion estimate for the new projects comes from Reuters, which noted that the push towards natural gas and coal will allow the country to cut back on crude and fuel oil power plants, fuels that are incredibly costly to import. From Reuters:

"What this will do is introduce an additional reserve margin into the power network, particularly in areas where some nuclear is coming back," said Nicholas Browne, a senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie in Singapore.

Expanding gas-fired generation is the only viable large-scale option in a nuclear-free Japan to power its industrial and commercial sector and keep electricity prices low enough for businesses to stay competitive globally.

Now, Reuters says fossil fuels are the "only viable" option to power Japan without nuclear energy. What about renewables, you ask? With storage and space restrictions, they're not ready yet to take over the bulk of power duties. Japan currently has nearly 25,000 MW of new fossil fuel capacity planned, and while Japan has previously announced a massive renewable energy initiative, it's not enough to replace nuclear completely.

Replacing nuclear does appear to be something Japan wants to do. In 2012, the country announced it wanted to be nuclear free by 2030, although more recently that's been revised to a more realistic projection of halving its nuclear reliance by that time. Renewables will definitely play a larger role, but shutting down reactors still means a shift towards fossil fuels, even if they're the fossil fuels of the future.

@derektmead