Every winter is weird as hell these days, in one way or another, but the clear presence of a powerful El Niño event offers something of a guarantee. Note that weird here doesn't mean universally bad, so much as it does "extreme."
This winter, according to the latest NOAA seasonal forecast, is almost certain to be extreme: heavy precipitation in the south, unusual warmth in the north, continued dryness in parts of the Pacific-Northwest. Alaska will be warm, while Texas will feel a chill. California may get soaked, thankfully. Again, this is all relatively speaking.
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The main driver behind all of this is a displaced jet stream. El Niño is characterized by the presence of unusually warm surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Water temperature influences evaporation and the jet stream will tend to be attracted to areas of higher evaporation. The result during an El Niño year is a jet stream that dips southward as it passes over the Pacific. This affects storm tracks, piping them directly at California and away from the Northwest.That said, everything about this coming winter could be average in every way. All an El Niño does is make this a less likely outcome. Weather is just a big wet casino.Needless to say, the stakes are pretty high these days weather-wise. The Southwest's ongoing mega-drought has spread northward, leaving the Pacific-Northwest about as crispy and wildfire-prone as the San Gabriel Mountains.
As for the actual San Gabriels:"While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for California, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought," said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in an announcement. "California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that's unlikely."
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The main driver behind all of this is a displaced jet stream. El Niño is characterized by the presence of unusually warm surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Water temperature influences evaporation and the jet stream will tend to be attracted to areas of higher evaporation. The result during an El Niño year is a jet stream that dips southward as it passes over the Pacific. This affects storm tracks, piping them directly at California and away from the Northwest.That said, everything about this coming winter could be average in every way. All an El Niño does is make this a less likely outcome. Weather is just a big wet casino.Needless to say, the stakes are pretty high these days weather-wise. The Southwest's ongoing mega-drought has spread northward, leaving the Pacific-Northwest about as crispy and wildfire-prone as the San Gabriel Mountains.As for the actual San Gabriels:"While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for California, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought," said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in an announcement. "California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that's unlikely."