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So Stephen Hawking Predicted England's Chances of Winning the World Cup

"I am an Englishman and will be cheering our boys all the way to the final in Rio … But my money is on Brazil.”
Image: Paddy Power

Professor Stephen Hawking has turned his unrivalled mind for theoretical physics to… predicting the England team’s chances at the World Cup. Naturally.

It's one of the most important questions preying on the collective English conscience right now, after all—and we know Hawking likes to partake in the odd wager here and there.

In a blog post and video for bookmakers Paddy Power, he lays out his analysis on two pressing footballing issues: what the optimal conditions for England’s success are, and how to score a penalty shootout. And yes, he's actually produced a research study, complete with graphs and formulae.

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"Our chances of triumph can be worked out by looking at a number of environmental, physiological, psychological, political and tactical variables,” he wrote. According to his apparently very scientific calculations, the team should wear red, and play in a 4-3-3 formation for a psychological boost.

His data crunching of results from finals since the 1966 Cup (all too long again when England won) also revealed that England wins 63 percent of games when the referee is European and only 38 percent when they’re from elsewhere, and that the team is twice as successful at altitudes below 500m over sea level, and a third more likely to do well when kick-off is around 3pm.

Unfortunately for the England team, it looks like Brazil’s climate might not be too favourable to them, as Hawking said that just a five percent rise in temperature reduces the chance of a win by 59 percent. See below the final model for England's chances of winning:

Bemused by the whole concept of Stephen Hawking turning to football punditry, I was keen to figure out how this stunt went down. Paddy of Paddy Power seemed quite surprised himself that they’d managed to pull it off; he told me on the phone they’d decided to go for a “scientific” angle over the usual ex-footballers’ chat when it comes to predictions in the World Cup build-up, and Hawking was naturally at the top of their wish list.

“Realistically you’re thinking you’ve got very little chance of him agreeing to do it, but we approached him anyway, and he was well up for it—he was up for a bit of fun.” Paddy said Hawking isn’t really a football fan and that’s part of the beauty of the collaboration: “There’s no distraction in there, it’s just cold, hard science.” They agreed a fee with the physicist, who donated it to the Motor Neurone Disease Association and Save the Children's campaign for the children of Syria.

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Hawking admits as much in his report. “I’m not actually a big football fan. Shouting at the television is not for me but each to his own,” he wrote, but later added, “Having said that, there is something special about a World Cup. All mathematics, science and rational thought go out the window when England are on. I am an Englishman and will be cheering our boys all the way to the final in Rio … But my money is on Brazil.”

A controversial statement for sure, but he’s not alone: This week, economists at Goldman Sachs also concluded Brazil would most likely come out on top.

As for penalty shoot-outs, Hawking explained that the key is to “give it some welly;” only 58 percent of kicks taken with a run-up of three steps or less make it in, compared to an overall total of 87 percent. And kick with the side of the boot, not the laces. Of course, given the nature of the research, some findings could be down to mere correlation and not causation—that fair-haired players score from penalty kicks 15 percent more than dark-haired players, for instance. Even Hawking’s stumped on that one.

Here's the formula anyway, if any England players happen to be reading:

“I would imagine there’s probably deeper and more difficult theoretical theories he’s done in his career, but I think he enjoyed it,” said Paddy.