Can the Colts Be the Colts Again?

The Colts and Patriots entered the season as co-favorites in the AFC. Yet after four weeks, the Patriots are undefeated while the Colts are barely 2-2.

But the Colts have a chance to take control of the AFC South on Thursday night. With a win against the reeling Houston Texans, they would move to 3-0 in the division. At the very least, they could put a lot of distance between themselves and three rebuilding projects that have yet to congeal. In another division, Indianapolis' start would be concerning. But nobody in the AFC South appears ready to displace the Colts.

So while the Colts aren't in any imminent danger of missing the playoffs, there's a lot to unpack with this team. They could still wind up as a dangerous team in the AFC. Keep in mind that this is a conference that, as of now, would feature a home Andy Dalton playoff game in the divisional round. Anything is possible.

Andrew Luck's Health

The status of Andrew Luck's shoulder is simultaneously concerning and also has never been better. Head coach Chuck Pagano vacillated between "absolute" confidence and "supreme" confidence in Luck playing this week. Then, Luck didn't. The only real update we've had on his shoulder is that the damage isn't structural.

The — Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)October 4, 2015

Assuming Luck is just dealing with shoulder-related fatigue or something similarly minor, the Colts should be fine. And they should rest their star quarterback. He is the franchise.

At this point there' no reason to panicking about the injury. It's one of those hush-hush deals that are so typical in the modern NFL.

If you spent an early fantasy football pick on Luck, you're aware that his breakout hasn't come. His play has been poor. It's also still just a three-game sample. Josh McCown finished fourth in DVOA in 2013 in more snaps than this. The Colts don't need Luck to be a mega-star to contend — but they do need him to play like Andrew Luck again. And the sooner, the better.

The Gaslamp Gang

It was neat to believe that the Colts could be a retirement home for old NFL stars. Andre Johnson and Frank Gore would come together to help Luck ascend to the next rung of greatness. Trent Cole would fix the entire pass rush. Todd Herremans would solidify the offensive line. Robert Mathis would come back at full health and play like he did in 2013. They'd teach the new kids some old tricks, and everything would come together.

Gore has been good enough that you can look past the two goal-line fumbles in four weeks. (Partially excused by a hand injury that Indy had not disclosed until this past week.) Every other member of that crew has failed to do his part.

Johnson can't shake basic man-coverage and has been a non-entity. Instead of replacing Reggie Wayne's 2013 season, Johnson has replaced Wayne's 2014 season. Donte Moncrief has been up to the task in his second season and they've had enough fallback options at the receiver to take the hit.

Herremans was inactive on Sunday. Indianapolis' offensive line is in the same situation as it always finds itself under Pagano and Grigson: someone seems to be playing out of position on a weekly basis, someone seems to be disappointing, someone gets dropped hastily from the rotation for a questionable replacement. And, perhaps worst of all, this shuffling has resulted in keeping Lance Louis on the team. Starting at guard. On purpose.

Mathis and Cole have combined for one sack, or exactly as many times as the Colts brought down Blake Bortles on Sunday. This is another real issue. The Colts have a blob of pass rushers that moves across the line as swiftly as a cloud on the horizon.

Not that general manager Ryan Grigson should be tarred and feathered. After all, the Colts did draft David Parry and Henry Anderson to help settle the defensive line. And every NFL head decried that as a huge position of need heading into the season.

But the Colts free-agent signings are typical of what happens when you sign veterans. Calculated risks can win, but over a large sample you're likely to find a lot more lemons than stars. Grigson has been put in a situation (first through inheriting a barren roster, now by drafting poorly at certain positions) where he's had to sign a lot of free agents. But he's shown no special aptitude in understanding free agency.

If I were a Colts fan, I wouldn't worry about their playoff chances. I wouldn't worry about Andrew Luck. I wouldn't worry about the long-term viability of the offense. I wouldn't even sweat the media-reported rift between Pagano and Grigson. (At least unless it threatens to endanger their relationship with Luck.)

What I'd worry about is the fact that come playoff time, this year's Colts team will be looking a lot like last year's Colts team—the one with clear holes at pass-rusher and on the offensive line. The one with little hope of derailing the Patriots.