What Will Indonesia Do If War Breaks Out On The Korean Peninsula?

Are we on the brink of World War III? Observers, world leaders, and conspiracy theorists are warning of war as tension on the Korean peninsula near the boiling point.

Just take a look at some of the headlines this week. Japan issued its first warnings detailing what to do during an attack since World War II, telling citizens they would only have 10 minutes to find cover before a missile strike. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un threatened both the US and Australia with attacks. The US moved a controversial missile defense system to South Korea, pissing off North Korea and China. The North then fired a shit ton of heavy artillery into the sea.

Meanwhile, a nuclear test, North Korea's sixth, hangs over the week's events. And whenever this test finally happens, we can be sure the US isn't going to react well—at least it won't if we are going off US President Donald Trump's tweets alone.

So, if another World War breaks out in Asia, what will Indonesia do? Most likely, not much.

"There's nothing we can do," said Muradi, a security and defense expert at Bandung's Padjadjaran University. "We never prepared for nuclear war since we have a 'Free and Active' foreign policy. Factually speaking, Indonesia is not ready [for a nuclear war]."

In other words, we'll be sidelined, in more ways than one.

Indonesia's military hardware isn't close to the level of what we're seeing at staging exercises in the Korean peninsula. Military spending is still a massive part of the state budget, but the country's artillery pales in comparison with the aircraft carriers, missile systems, and submarines of richer or more militarized nations.

"Even going head-to-head with Malaysia or Singapore, we are still way below them in terms of modernity," Muradi said. "We can only go head-to-head with Vietnam. Even the Philippines and Thailand have us beat."

The US had a military embargo with Indonesia from 1995 to 2005, forcing the country to rely on countries like Russia and Iran for arms sales. The country's new submarines are being bought from South Korea—a country that buys its arms from the US.

The Indonesian air force relies heavily on old F-16 fighter jets provided by the US government. And even those are struggling because repairs requires mechanics to import expensive parts from the US.

Indonesia instead focuses on its response in-line with the nation's "Total Warfare System" or Sishanta. The military policy requires every Indonesian citizen to participate in war if necessary. It's a plan that's been in place since 1962, explained Muradi

"The last time we were involved in an actual war it was in East Timor in 1975," he said. "Our defense system was based on a territorial war, where we rely on our big islands [as an advantage]. The idea is to use them in a guerrilla, head-to-head style of war. In this kind of war, our islands are a big advantage.

"Our defense system is like total football. We invite the enemy to come in and when they do, we beat them up with our numbers. Because like I said, in our Total Warfare System, every civilian has to participate [in the fight]."

But, in reality, a US-North Korea war is unlikely, said Connie Rahakundini Bakrie, a defense expert at the University of Indonesia. She sees the ongoing tensions with North Korea as part of a power play by US President Trump to force China into a closer relationship. The country is merely a pawn in a larger economic negotiation, she explained.

"North Korea has been turned into a common enemy to justify a US-China relationship," Connie said. "Even through both countries need each other, they often fall into conflict."

Disputes between China and the US are bad for the economy, she said. But the threat of war? That's a sure moneymaker when you're the world's largest arms dealer.

"Trump is still a businessman," Connie said. "He sees things economically. The defense sector creates a lot of money. And since the US military campaigns in the Middle East failed, Trump needs to create a new war. This will cause the US' allies to prepare themselves [with new arms purchases]. Countries like Australia, South Korea, and Japan."