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Early Returns: There's Plenty to Like about the Raptors

The Raptors are off to a hot start. Jonas Valanciunas, big offseason acquisition DeMarre Carroll, and a revamped bench are some of the key reasons why.
Photo by Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Dwane Casey became the winningest head coach in Raptors history by notching his 157th victory in Sunday's home win over Milwaukee.

"As Drake said, we started at the bottom," Casey said. "But we're not there yet. We started 30th in the league in defence. We've done a lot of building, and we're still building. Nobody wants to hear that, but we're in the middle of a process of where we need to go and we're not done."

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In what could be his final season in Toronto, and coming off back-to-back first-round exits, incremental improvements are expected on both ends of the floor this campaign. The franchise-record 49 wins felt like an empty accomplishment, especially given the team's uneven play after January which concluded with a first-round sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards. The Raptors are 3-0 after Sunday's victory over the Bucks, but more than just wins and losses, it's fundamental changes in the team's offensive and defensive approach that will define this regular season.

With the caveat that it is very, very early, here are some takeaways so far:

The defence has looked much better: The Raptors held opponents to 45.9 percent shooting and 34.6 percent from long range last season. So far, opponents are shooting 38.8 percent from the field and 30.9 percent from deep. Again, we can't draw any conclusions given that these numbers are through three games, and against Indiana, Boston and Milwaukee—teams that likely won't finish in the top ten in offensive efficiency this season. The Celtics and Bucks don't have a plethora of 3-point shooters, either. But the Raptors pass the eye test so far, in terms of effort level and cohesion on the defensive end. The early results have been more than encouraging. The week ahead, which includes games at Oklahoma City and Miami, should provide us with a clearer picture of how far the improvement has come. The emphasis has certainly been on improving this end of the floor.

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Adjustments at the offensive end are showing up in the numbers: For all the criticism about the team's isolation-heavy offence last season, the Raptors still found a way to be one of the most efficient offences in the league. Toronto might find itself among the leaders in offensive efficiency once again this season, but it might take a different path getting there. So far, the Raptors have assisted on 56.6 percent of their field goals after placing third-last (54.7 percent) in the league a season ago. For reference, the Atlanta Hawks led the league at 67.6 percent. Assist percentage—especially with a sample size this minuscule—can be misleading. But if it feels like there is much more ball movement to the offence this year, it's because there has been. The Raptors have made 325 passes per game, a significant jump from last season when the team averaged 281.2 passes per contest. Again, we'll see whether this keeps up. The Raptors will still rely on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan in late-game situations, but there's a happy medium for this offence and its been working toward it.

The acquisition of DeMarre Carroll is paying off: Carroll, who was signed to a sizable contract this offseason, came in billed as an elite perimeter defender and has already helped solidify the Raptors on that end of the floor. He also contributed with long-range shooting in Atlanta, and has done so in Toronto, too, hitting 42.1 percent of his 3-pointers. The ball movement in Atlanta allowed Carroll to hit 120 shots from deep last season, 119 of which were assisted. So far, all eight of his 3-pointers have been assisted. As the offence gets more comfortable with the new addition to the starting lineup, expect Carroll to get more open looks. Coming off an impressive preseason, Lowry hasn't played like an MVP candidate thus far, but has been solid, and looks much more mobile with his new, skinny frame. The Raptors know what Lowry can do when he's healthy, but the key will be whether he can hold up better this season. DeRozan, meanwhile, is averaging 21.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. He has gotten to the line at a clip of 10.7 free throw attempts per game.

Valanciunas is getting fourth quarter minutes: Valanciunas is averaging a double-double and shooting 58.6 percent from the field. He's played 19 minutes of the fourth quarter in three games, which means he's played 40 percent of available minutes in the period. The Raptors will never tailor their offence to make him a No. 1 option, but he's one of the most efficient low-post scorers based on points per possession, so it would be worthwhile to give him some additional looks in the fourth quarter, where he's taken five field goal attempts so far. Last season, Valanciunas played 292 minutes in the fourth quarter in 57 contests, meaning over his 80 games, he only played 30 percent of available minutes in the period. Again, it's very early, but opponents are scoring 89.5 points per 100 possessions in the fourth with Valanciunas on the floor, which is a terrific number. The concern with him has always been that he's too slow-footed to defend against smaller lineups, especially on pick-and-rolls. We'll soon find out if Casey is committed to having Valanciunas on the floor in late-game situations, or if he'll adjust based on matchups. The Raptors did successfully go with a small lineup in the fourth quarter of their season-opening win over Indiana, with Lowry, Cory Joseph and DeRozan sharing the floor with Carroll (at the four) and Valanciunas. Casey talked in the offseason about going small, and it'll be fun to see more of these late-game lineups that allow the Raptors to spread the floor and force other teams into adjustments on both ends.

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The revamped bench unit, especially Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson, is contributing: Ross is shooting 52.0 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from beyond the arc, and looking much more comfortable so far this season now that he is slotted into a bench role. Over the past three seasons, the Raptors are 56-24 when Ross has 10-plus points, 49-14 when they make 10-plus 3-pointers and 77-30 when they have 20-plus assists. After a subpar preseason, Patrick Patterson is shooting over 50 percent from deep, and had 16 points in Sunday's win.

The Raptors head out on a four-game road trip this week and will play 10 of their next 12 away from the Air Canada Centre. The early results have been mostly positive, but we'll get a much better sense of where they stand in terms of year-to-year improvement at the end of this tough upcoming stretch.