The Rap Up: Valanciunas Has Earned Crunch-Time Minutes

(Editor's note: Catch The Rap Up at VICE Sports on Monday, where Steven Lebron covers off all things Raptors. You can follow him on Twitter.)

In Sunday night's loss to Sacramento, the Raptors went with a three-guard lineup for most of the fourth quarter, pairing Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Cory Joseph together, with DeMarre Carroll playing the four. Dwane Casey chose to have Bismack Biyombo defending DeMarcus Cousins at the centre spot, leaving Jonas Valanciunas on the bench until the final seconds of the game. There's been an uptick in fourth-quarter minutes this season for the Raptors' starting center, but it's still an exercise in moderation depending on matchups.

Against traditional big men who don't play much on the perimeter and get involved in pick-and-roll action on a consistent basis—like Zaza Pachulia or Hassan Whiteside, two opponents the Raptors have faced this season—Valanciunas can stay in the paint, protect the rim, crash the boards, and alleviate some of his defensive concerns. The Raptors have also changed their defensive strategies against pick-and-rolls this season, having Valanciunas hang back closer to the basket instead of the more aggressive approach in previous seasons which exposed some of his deficiencies in terms of his footwork and reaction time.

Casey clarified the change in approach prior to the start of the season, noting that it wasn't made to accommodate Valanciunas. "The key is all of our bigs have to go and get the ball. All of them have to focus on rebounding," he said. "We are not changing our defence for one guy. We are changing it to make sure we take advantage of an offensive system and all of our big guys have to go and rebound."

Valanciunas is scoring and rebounding at a career-high clip through 11 games, but is a work in progress on the defensive end. Here you see the strategy of having him hang back pay off, as he stays in front of Jrue Holiday, and forces him into a tough shot, and is in position to grab the rebound unopposed:

There are other situations, though, where Valanciunas doesn't come out on the jump shooter in time, creating too much space for the opponent on the perimeter:

Per NBA.com, in a small sample size of 51 minutes in the fourth quarter, opponents are scoring 95.6 points per 100 possessions when Valanciunas is on the floor (for comparison, Biyombo has played 72 minutes in the fourth, and opponents are scoring 103.7 points per 100 possessions). Overall, Valanciunas has a +13.6 net rating when he's on the floor this season. Unless Biyombo is making a visible difference on the defensive end, Valanciunas should be seeing more minutes in late-game situations.

As we saw in Sunday's loss to the Kings, without a capable scoring big man on the floor, it takes away a key option for the Raptors on offence, and fourth-quarter possessions become a series of isolations and mid-range jumpers. With Valanciunas in the pick-and-roll, he can spot up for perimeter shots or roll to the basket and finish around the rim, none of which Biyombo is capable of doing. We've seen DeRozan improve with his passing from year to year, and in late-game situations when Valanciunas is on the floor, he doesn't have to settle for a perimeter shot and can instead attack the rim or look for a big man with capable hands, as he's done this season:

More than half of Valanciunas' field goals have been assisted this year, and two thirds of them have come from Lowry and DeRozan. With Joseph running the second unit and at times playing alongside Lowry, there are more minutes on the floor where Valanciunas is playing with guards who can find him for scoring opportunities. Substitute all of the minutes where the offence revolved around Lou Williams last season, and the uptick in fourth-quarter minutes with him gone, and that alone should increase Valanciunas' production.

With Lowry and DeRozan as the focal points of the offence, Valanciunas will remain an efficient low-post scorer that ranks on the lower end in terms of usage, which feels like a broken record at this point—simply because Valanciunas has shown he deserves more post-up opportunities. Valanciunas almost instinctively pump fakes whenever he gets the ball in scoring position, whether he's in the paint or not. It's basically his traditional starting point for every offensive move. Here, he restricts himself to just one pump fake against Omer Asik, and without even bringing the ball down, regroups and hits a jumper:

In a similar spot on the floor against the Heat, he's able to dribble with his strong hand into the lane, jump stop and score with a hook shot:

Another plus of having Valanciunas on the floor during crunch time is that he's a terrific free-throw shooter (77.8 percent for his career), which again eliminates another concern of keeping him in games. The benefits of having Valanciunas on the floor in the fourth quarter outweigh the risks at this point, especially when you consider the alternatives available on this roster. Keeping Valanciunas on the bench in the fourth depending on matchups is no longer a sensible choice. He's clearly the best big man down the stretch, and has earned the opportunity to be out there. The Raptors made a long-term commitment to Valanciunas this offseason, and now the time has come for them to make the same bet on their big man when it matters.

A few other thoughts…

• After agreeing to a three-year extension with the Raptors, Terrence Ross had a subpar (to put it kindly) shooting week, and then last Monday suffered a ligament injury to his left thumb in practice that will keep him out at least two weeks. With Carroll missing three games as he deals with plantar fasciitis, second-round pick Norman Powell saw some minutes this past week, and looked pretty comfortable on the defensive end for a rookie. Delon Wright—the team's first-round selection—is unlikely to see the floor much this season, as the point guard will be playing behind Lowry and Joseph. If there's a rookie contributor this season, it will be Powell, who ideally could turn into what we have wanted Ross to become—a consistent 3-and-D guy off the bench.

• Hedo Turkoglu officially announced his retirement Friday at the age of 36. The Magic will honor him Dec. 18. I have not verified this with the Raptors but I'm going to assume the team doesn't have any plans on a Hedo night anytime soon.

• The Raptors 905s opened their inaugural season this weekend and dropped both games to fall to 0-2. All of their games are broadcast on the D-League's YouTube channel. Bruno Caboclo scored 25 points Sunday, for what it's worth.

• After opening their five-game West Coast road trip with a loss to the Kings, the Raptors take on the defending champion Golden State Warriors next. Golden State is undefeated at 11-0, and has, somehow, gotten even better. The rest of the trip will offer challenges, as Toronto will then head to Utah against a stingy and much-improved Jazz team, and then play both Los Angeles teams (Kobe might have one more special game left for us, and the Clippers are really good). After that, the Raptors go home but have to face LeBron James and the Cavaliers. We might be talking about a .500 team next week. See you then.