Motherboard

Maybe more folks are watching the news, or maybe the end really is nigh, but either way a recent Harris poll shows that a vast majority of Americans think that “devastating” natural disasters are on the rise. According to the poll, 76 percent of U.S. adults think that natural disasters are happening more frequently in recent years, while only two percent think that there have been fewer.

There’s a wealth of evidence that the number of natural disasters worldwide has been on the rise. Whether that’s due to better reporting and study, population growth putting more pressure on at-risk areas, or the impact of climate change is unknown, although as with all complicated phenomena it’s probably a combination of the three. Climate-based disasters, such as floods, droughts and hurricanes, have increased tenfold since 1950 according to the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Meanwhile, Oxfam, a British charity, says that rates of geothermal disasters, such as those from earthquakes or volcanoes, have remained relatively steady.

Natural disasters, especially climate disasters, have been on the rise since 1900. While some of this is due to increased reporting and study since the first half of the century, climate disaster rates have also risen steadily since 1980. Via UNEP.

It seems, then, that the results of the Harris poll reflect what’s really been happening. It’s interesting to note that people’s concerns change by region, which isn’t unexpected. Seventy seven percent of Easterners worry about snow storms, while 89 percent of Midwesterners worry about tornadoes. Two-thirds of Southerners also worry about tornadoes, while half are worried about hurricanes or droughts. Earthquakes are of concern to two-thirds in the West, while only seven to 16 percent of respondents in other regions thought they’d be impacted by a big shake.

As for the cause of all these disasters? Harris asked respondents who felt that disasters were increasing if they thought it was due to global warming. 38 percent said yes, 28 percent said no, and 34 percent weren’t sure.

In terms of the government’s response to a devastating event, 59 percent said a nuclear disaster is what the government is worst-equipped to handle despite only 11 percent feeling that such an event would affect them. In 2006, about half of Americans said the government was worst-equipped to handle terrorism, a number that’s fallen to 34 percent. Even more dramatically, after Hurricane Katrina 50 percent of the U.S. felt that the government couldn’t handle hurricanes. It now stands at 16 percent.

The real question is, if a majority of Americans think we’re having more and more disasters, are people prepared? Respondents were asked if they could handle a disaster or long-term power outage, which was qualified as having food, water and supplies for three days. While 76 percent said disasters are on the rise, only 56 percent said they were prepared, and a whopping 41 percent said they definitively weren’t. The number of prepared individuals increased as respondents got older.

With a majority of Americans thinking that rates of natural disasters are increasing, a view generally supported by statistics and science, it seems that most of the country is well-informed regarding disasters, intuitive, or, hell, just plain scared by the media. In any case, those justifiable worries don’t seem to be translating to increased preparedness. In 2010, 82 percent of the U.S. population lived in urban areas, which are harder to evacuate and harder to saturate with aid. With that in mind, efforts to support disaster education and preparedness need to increase.